توقعاتنا صحيحة لاسعار الذهب - تقييم اسبوعي 2 فبراير 2016

في 25 يناير 2016 توقعنا حركة الذهب للاشهر القادمة وصرحنا بان هناك ارتفاع قادم للذهب بالرغم من ان الصحف والاخبار تقول عكس ذلك ... كان السعر تقريبا عند المستوى 1101.01 تقريبا ووصل حاليا الى 1220 اي ما يعادل 10 أضعاف المبلغ (بمعدل 1000% نسبة الربح) ...

اعرض الرسم البياني التالي الذي يوضح توقعاتنا في شهر يناير السابق، وللحصول على معلومات اكثر يرجي مراجعة المقطع المرئي على موقعي الخاص اشرح الموضوع بشكل مفصل

25 يناير 2016 – توقع حركة الذهب

الرسم البياني التالي يمثل الوضع الحالي لاسعار الذهب وواضح بان المسار (الخط الازرق) مطابق للواقع

11 فبراير 2016 – اسعار الذهب حاليا

الذهب حاليا امام خط مقاومة قوي جدا لذلك على المتداولين الخروج من عمليات الشراء واغلاق معاملاتهم والانتظار للحصول على اشارة النزول. هناك احتمالية ضئيلة ان يتجاوز الاسبوع القادم هذا الخط، لكن اذا تم تجاوزه واغلق فوق هذا الخط (1220.3) سيكون هناك ارتفاع قوي ... في الاغلب والاحتمالية الاكبر بانه لن يتجاوز حد المقاومة 1220.3 وسيبدأ بالنزول وعلى المتداولين البحث عن منطقة دخول في وضع "البيع " .... اعيد مرة اخرى بان هذا التوقع يجب ان يدعم بافعال المضاربين قصيري المدى ويجب ان يكون هناك تقييم اسبوعي للذهب للتأكد من عدم تغير المعطيات 

Gold Weekly Assessment 2-11-2016

Our expectations were true about Gold. We have posted earlier about the future movement of Gold in 25^th of Jan 2016 in our social media channels (YouTube and Instagram) that there will be a surge in Gold price in Feb and it will reach 1220.3 resistance levels. The Reward was more than 10 times the risk.

The following the graph shows our expectation in 25^th of Jan 2016, if you need more info about this forecast, you can check my YouTube video published on my website.

Weekly timeframe 25^th of Jan 2016 for Gold price

The following graph shows the current situation of Gold prices.

Weekly timeframe 11^th of Feb 2016 for Gold price

Gold is facing a strong resistance now; there is a low probability to break it. All bullish positions should be closed now and wait for bearish setup on lower timeframe. Please note that this expectation should be supported by action in the lower timeframe. Daily traders should support the higher timeframe to follow this expected path. 

Quick updates on US Stock Market

Hello, last week was very critical to the US markets, especially after the announcement of interest rate by federal reserves. The attached graph shows the mini S&P 500, which used by economist and financial analysts to evaluate the performance of US market. The market had two scenarios:

1.       Closing above major support 2044 and has high probability of going bullish to test the major resistance 2095

  2.       Breaking the major support and closing under 2044 to go bearish and test another major support at 1985 and going back into the consolidation stage.  

On Friday, the market broke the major support taking the 2^nd scenario, which increases the probability of testing the next major support at 1985 till 20^th of January 2016. For now, the price is between very tight consolidation range 2044 and 2032 but there is a high probability of breaking that level and heading to 1985. 

Quick Update on Germany Stock Market

Germany is at very critical stage, the closing price of this week will determine whether German Stock Market will get into bearish trend or not. Yesterday the market broke a very strong support level and it currently it is being controlled by daily timeframe.

 

If the price holds the resistance level at 10369 for the upcoming three days, there is a high probability of going bearish and targeting the next major support at 9636 … However, there is a small window for 3 days to avoid the bearish sentiment and break the resistance and it all depends on the daily timeframe … after that it will be very difficult since all daily, weekly and monthly traders get along and their expectations will be unified to go bearish.

 

Will Gold Price increase in 2016 ?

Today’s subject is Gold … a lot of people start talking about Gold and their expectations got higher specially after the last week movements that started in 4^th of Jan  2016 … the question is “To what extend this surge will reach ? And whether it will really reach 1190 which is the highest point reached in Oct 2015 ? “

I believe we are asking a lot from Gold to reach that level, there is a long journey ahead of it … yes there are a bullish signals in the lower timeframes, but when it comes to control, we need to consider daily timeframe … Daily timeframe will decide next week whether to stop the bullish trend and reverse back or break the strong resistance at 1118 … there is a high probability that Gold will not be able to break it and bounce back. 

However, if it really breaks the resistance, then it will go and test another strong resistance level at 113 … I f it could not break the 2^nd resistance, it will start consolidating between the range of 1118 and 1139 …

Recommendation: avoid Long positions at this moment until it reach the mentioned resistance level. To get more information about economics and financial market, please visit my website mentioned in bio 

 

Our expectations about Germany (DAX) were TRUE!

Our expectations were true about Germany (DAX) … last week we posted about Germany as an example of Europe Market since it is considered one of the major economies and the leader of the Europe market … We tried to answer the following questions “Will Europe economy start 2016 with a better condition?” … Fundamental guys said it will start the year with improvement since the price of oil is tanking, which eventually will reduce the cost of production and create a comparative advantages compared to US products … the devolution of Euro also another supporting elements …

However, all their expectations were not true and the graph shows different view and this is what we have expected … Reuters posted an articles yesterday talking about Europe markets updates and they said that Oil prices actually is producing the current negative impacts and it is leading stock markets to go down! So what is the answer? Who is right? And Where the European market will go in 2016?

http://www.reuters.com/article/europe-stocks-idUSL8N14Z3XU

From our perspective, all fundamentals should support their opinions and expectations by technical analysis … technical analysis reflects the actual behavior of the market and provides accurate information about people actions and what they really believe…

So let get back to our chart and see what happen last week … as we expected, there was a high probability that the market will go down and there was a slim chance to go bullish (3 days) … please refer to my earlier post for more information …. The price went down from 10380 to strong support 9636 and closed under it at 9545 … the opportunity for improvement will occur again next week, the market has 8 days to go back to 10380, however it is a low probability … the next major support is 9345