Detailed outlook for Dubai Financial Market March 2016

Middle East Stock Markets – Dubai

Middle East Stock markets started to recover especially after the recent surge in Oil prices occurred in 20^th of Jan 2016. Comparing with last month, all Gulf Region Markets started to show bullishness signs. The level of improvement varies them but Dubai and Abu Dhabi are leading the markets. For a better understanding, the following graphical view shows the status of all timeframe for all Gulf Region Markets. It helps us to identify the improvements within one market and relatively to others.

  

Country	60	120	240	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
Kuwait
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Saudi
Bahrain
Qatar
Oman

Figure 1: IchimokuTrade RT Scanner: Middle East Markets Heat Map for Feb 2016

Comparing to last month, the bullishness strategies are much more especially in the lower timeframe. Green color is covering almost half the table. Another major observation is higher timeframe (Daily, Weekly & monthly) started to reverse in most countries and shifted from RED to Amber. Daily timeframe in all markets is Green. Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Kuwait are doing better than the rest. Oman and Bahrain are at the bottom of the list.  Saudi and Qatar are in the middle and facing major resistances. The question remains “Is the current bullish trend sustainable?”

To answer this question, we will cover Dubai Market since it is the less affected market by the previous drop of Oil prices and maintained its bullishness level better than the rest. The following graph shows how Dubai market is linked to oil prices. The reverse trend in Oil prices in 20^th of Jan 2016 pushed the market drastically up the next day and everyone started to talk about bottom out. 

Figure 2: eSignal Daily Chart of Oil Prices and Dubai Financial Markets from Jan till Feb 2016

Let us go to our technical analysis and verify whether the market disposed of the bearishness influence or not.  We will start with Monthly timeframe and see where we stand from high level perspective. Since Aug 2015 the market was going bearish drastically to the top of the Kumo Cloud, which is also 61.8% Fibonacci level on the quarterly timeframe. It closed below that level on weekly timeframe but it never closed on the monthly. This confirms that monthly timeframe is controlling the destiny of Dubai market and overrides the lower timeframe. Now price should go up to the next resistance at 3411 and there is a high probability to break it since it is not Multiple Timeframe Resistance.

Figure 3: eSignal Monthly Chart of Dubai Market

As for weekly, it has a bullishness sign that is controlled by Monthly timeframe. However, weekly will start pushing the other way and going against the monthly in March. This reverse trend also will be supported by daily timeframe till 2^nd week of March. The bearish effect will be reduced gradually till the end of March 2016. The following graph shows the weekly charts of Dubai Market and the expected support and resistance.

Figure 4: eSignal Weekly Chart of Dubai Market

In conclusion, the current bullish trend is still facing some bearishness effects and there is a high probability that Dubai stock market will start to consolidate in March between two levels 3292 and 2892 due to the battel between Monthly and Weekly timeframes. The bearishness will be reduced gradually and there will be a bullish consolidation especially after mid of March. By end of March, there is high priority it will break the resistance level 3292 and test the next major resistance on Monthly at 3432.

Swim with the Big Fish

Swim With The Big Fish

Traders are competing everyday on the same resources, and only few who win. Fresh traders are the weakest link in the chain. They are being beaten by institutional and professional traders and feel behind their peers. Overcome these challenges, trading concept to be redefined. Trading is a business that requires a full plan as any other project. The majority of retail traders forget to plan strategically and focus mainly on trading plan. There is a huge difference between the two. Without strategic business plan, the trading journey will not be exciting and will always be limited on part of the picture. The whole picture will always be blurry.

Trading world is not different from college life in terms of competition. The availability of courses is a major challenge for freshmen. They struggle to find suitable time courses and high ranked professors because senior student are entitled to register ahead of time. Freshmen have to compete on the remained courses that are less attractive and do not meet their study plan. Such challenge hindered me from achieving my goal when I was in college.

Complete my studies with high grades and less time, I had to overcome this obstacle. I started to gather information from freshmen, senior students and advisors in order to analyze and set a plan. Senior students were inactive and consumed. They did not have enough energy to compete with fresh new students, and they just wanted to graduate. On the other hand, freshmen had the energy but there were no available courses. I asked myself the following question “Is it possible to combine the advantages from both levels and compete the lazy people on their valuable resources?”

The answer was YES. I set a plan and moved up the competition to the senior level in my first year by taking advanced courses ahead of time while the rest of freshmen were looking for basics. Such move, cost me time and effort, but I achieved my goal with high quality. My strategic plan helped me finding better courses and be better than both seniors and juniors. That way of thinking might be unorthodox which is what you need to swim with big fish.

Traders should have the entrepreneur way of thinking that will make sure not to loose track. The majority of traders caught up in technical matters and forgets that they are living in entrepreneurship world and might miss the opportunity of getting the most of it. They focus mainly on new technology and run after different techniques and indicators to generate more money, but they fail to remember that trading is all about business and sometimes it should be handled away from Fibonacci and Elliott Wave. The more you ignore this aspect, the farthest you are from being a successful entrepreneur.

Technical analysts need to focus more on the strategic and project management skills. They need to manage their trading as investment project that involves multiple aspects such as strategic plan, schedule, budget, quality and stakeholder. A long term road map with clear outlook for your trading is needed to sustain revenue and expand financial dreams. Focusing on technical matters and ignoring the strategic side of trading is like big muscles without brain to control and guide the efforts.

Retail traders should answer strategic questions before entering the financial markets. You have to know what your vision is. How are you going to achieve your vision? What are your short and long term objectives? What values you will be holding while you are moving in this journey? Do have key performance indicators to measure your progress? Be innovative, be creative and the right start is to with strategic business plan.

Abdullah Alrayes

Monthly Updates on Middle East Financial Markets March 2016

This article covers the monthly updates for Middle East Countries. Most of Middle East financial markets are at critical resistance level, and there is high probability not to break it. Mid of March the bearishness pressure will increase and push down the markets to test the supports. Markets are varying in terms of bearishness sentiment, however, Abu Dhabi and Dubai have temporary bullishness and it will be reduced by mid of March. Following are the forecast and details of each market

Dubai and Abu Dhabi are the most bullishness markets. Dubai is facing a resistance as well at 3287 but there is high probability it will break it and go to next major resistance at 3408. By mid of March, the bearishness pressure will increase pushing it to go and test support level at 3167. The following is the forecast

Figure 1: Dubai Market March 2016 (Daily Timeframe)

As for Abu Dhabi, it is going to test the next resistance at 4484 and there is low probability to break it. It will bounce of and go to test the support level at 4263 by end of the March 2016. The bearishness sentiment will increase by mid of March. The following is the forecast:

Figure 2: Abu Dhabi Financial Market for March 2016 (Daily Timeframe)

As for Kuwait, it is currently facing a strong resistance level at 859.4 and there is low probability it will break it. If it breaks, it will go to test the next resistance level at 882.2. By Mid of March, there is high probability it will go down.

Figure 3: Kuwait Financial Market March 2016 (Weekly Timeframe)

Saudi Arabia is not much different than Kuwait. It is facing a strong resistance at 6350 and there is high probability not to break it. If it breaks it, it will go to test 6604 level. By mid of March, the bearishness pressure will increase and push it down to the 5893. Following are the weekly charts

Figure 4: Saudi Arabia March 2016 (Weekly Timeframe)

Qatar is a temporary stronger bullishness till end of next week. It is also facing a strong resistance at level 10440 and it is also low probability to break it. There is a high probability it will go down in March and start to recover in April. In general, it will consolidate between 10440 and 9480 till May 2016. Following is the forecast using the weekly timeframe.  

Figure 5: Qatar Financial Market (Weekly Timeframe)