In this article, we would to show the progress in the Middle
East stock markets. We will use the iChimoku Heatmap to compare the first month
of each quarter to present the sentiment for the higher timeframe (daily,
weekly and monthly) as shown below.
We can identify several observations from the above graphs.
First observation is the gradual increase in the green cells (bullish
sentiment) across the tables. At the begging of the 2016, the green cell was
only covering the daily timeframe and only portion of the Middle East markets
like Kuwait, Dubai, Qatar and Oman. In the 2nd quarter, the green
cells penetrate the weekly timeframe and start to create some balance between
the two sentiments. And not only the bullishness reached the weekly, but also
affected some of the monthly timeframe to change from bearishness to neutral
like Kuwait. The 3rd quarter is almost fully covered with green
across all markets except the monthly timeframe.
The second observation is that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are
considered the worst cases and the market status is deteriorated comparing with
last month. On the other hand, Bahrain which was the worst market in terms of
performance, now become one of the best.
The question remains: Will the bullishness sentiment sustain
and penetrate the monthly timeframe and Middle East will enjoy a bullish
market? Or is this enhancement temporary and just a major pullback for the
Middle East markets and trying to continue its previous direction to go bearish
again?
To sum up, Middle East markets have progress a lot since
2016. The next step is to align the monthly timeframe direction with the daily
and weekly. We believe that there is a window for the Middle East markets to
continue the progress and enjoy bullishness till Oct 2016, given that the oil
prices sustain it levels or higher. In Oct, the bearish sentiment will increase
and we will require another detailed analysis to confirm whether the current
progress is a major pullback or consolidation toward bullish trend.
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