الأحد، 3 يوليو 2016

Our Expectations were true about Qatar Market ...


Over the last couple of months, we covered Qatar financial markets several times and forecasted the market reaction to the oil price changes. The following graph was posted in March 2016:



Figure 1: eSignal Weekly Chart of Qatar Market for March 2016

Our forecast was true and Qatar market followed the path we have drawn last time. We have predicted a bullishness in April and June and bearishness in May along with the levels. There was a lag of one week between our forecast and actual performance. The changes in these month occurred one week before comparing to our estimation. To give you more insight about the differences, we have attached the following graph that shows the current status of the market (Bars) and the forecasted movement (blue line).


Figure 2: eSignal Weekly Chart of Qatar Market for March 2016

The market was consolidating between 10400 and 9480 levels. There were two windows of opportunity to go bullish. The first window was supposed to start in April, however it decided to go bullish earlier and started in the 4th week of March. It got back to the resistance level but could not break it. The second window was June 2016. The timing was matching but the bullishness was not strong enough to bring back the market to the same resistance in one month, so it will continue going bullish to hit the resistance. The bearish sentiment increased as expected in May pushing down the prices to go down against the monthly timeframe.

As for the upcoming weeks, there is high probability that the market will continue its current sentiment and go bullish to reach the major resistance at 10440. The monthly timeframe is supporting the weekly to break that resistance. If it breaks it, it will go to the next major resistance at 11212. However the price should get to the new level before October 2016 because the conflict between weekly and monthly will start in October and it might repeat the consolidation pattern. The following graph shows the next resistance level:


Figure 3: eSignal Weekly Chart of Qatar Market for June 2016


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