Middle East Stock Markets - Nov 2016

Middle East Stock Markets

We will start with an overview about Middle East Stock Markets and then we will take a look at each market separately and highlight the critical levels.

In general, Middle East Markets have bearish sentiment and performing worse than last month. According to our Heat-map tool shown below, the red cells have increased in October 2016 comparing to September 2016.

As we mentioned in the previous articles, the bullishness we saw in May and July was just a major pullback that helped the market to recover from the steep bearishness move, opening an opportunity to stop the monthly timeframe from continuing down. We anticipated that the consolidation stage will start in Aug 2016 till end of 2016.  To provide more insight about Middle East Market, we will cover each market separately and determine the major support/resistance level.

 Saudi Arabia

Last month, we forecasted a Buy Opportunity that will start by 9^th and ends by 31^st of Oct 2016. The following graph shows the forecasting path in Blue.

Figure 3: eSignal Daily Chart of Saudi Arabia Financial Market

Saudi Market is currently facing a resistance at 5935.43 as shown below. If it breaks that resistance it will be heading to the next major resistance at 6114.57 as shown in graph no. 4. This major resistance is strong and there is low probability it will break it. From 1^st of Nov till 22^nd of Nov, the bearishness will increase and push the market to go down to 5656.92. In a nutshell, long position at this stage is not a recommended. Even if the market breaks the current resistance (5929.42), there is not much reward until next resistance (6125.86).

Figure 4: eSignal Daily Chart of Saudi Arabia Financial Market

Qatar

Qatar is a bearish market and currently facing strong support at 10150.48. If it breaks that level and closes below it and hold it till 7^th of Nov 2016, there is a high probability it will go down to 9700.

There is a small window for bullishness that ends by 6^th of Nov. if it doesn’t break that level by that time, the chance of going bullish is low. The resistance level at 10520.20 is very strong and there is low probability to break it. The following figure shows Qatar market.

Figure 5: eSignal Daily Chart of Qatar Financial Market

Oman

Oman is a bearish market, however, there will be a good long opportunity if it stops at 5431.35 as shown below. This level is a major support that might help the market to bounce off and go to the resistance level at 5576.88. The second scenario is if the market decides to go bullish before reaching the support level mentioned earlier, there is high probability it will stop at 5634.32

Figure 6: eSignal Daily Chart of Oman Financial Market

Kuwait

Kuwait market was the best in terms of performance in Oct 2016. However, it bounced off after hitting a major resistance and heading now to support level at 821.6. If it breaks that level, it will go 801.6. In order to maintain the bullish sentiment, it has to hold support 521.6 for at least 4 weeks. The following is the graph shows the level.

Figure 7: eSignal Daily Chart of Kuwait Financial Market

Dubai

It is a bearish market that is facing a strong resistance and low probability to break it. If the market doesn’t break the resistance level at 3401.44 by 3rd of Nov, there is high probability it will continue down. The next minor support is 3200. There is high probability it will break it and go to 3089.

Figure 8: eSignal Daily Chart of Dubai  Financial Market

Abu Dhabi

It is also a bearish market that is going through a pullback. If it continues the bullishness sentiment, there is high probability it will stop and bounce of resistance level 4368.74. The next minor support is 4220.48. If the market decides to go bearish without touching the level 4368, there is high probability to break the support and go to 4170. The bearish sentiment will increase from 6^th of Nov till 21^st of Nov. 

Figure 9: eSignal Daily Chart of Abu Dhabi Financial Market

Bahrain

Bahrain market is the most bullish market. In order to continue the bullishness, it should hold the level 1132.14 and doesn’t close below it. The next major resistance is 1168.98

Figure 10: eSignal Daily Chart of Bahrain Financial Market

توقعاتنا للاسواق المالية السعودية

هذه المقالة تم نشرها في المجلة الاقتصادية الامريكية "ألفا كلاود" لشهر اكتوبر 2016

كما عودتكم سابقا، سأقدم تقرير سريع عن اخر التطورات الاسواق المالية الخليجية ثم سأتطرق الى البورصة السعودية بشكل مفصل لنرى ماهي الحركة المتوقعة للأسواق. والسبب في اختيار الاسواق السعودية لهذا الشهر هو الاخبار الاخيرة بخصوص الضغوط المالية التي تتعرض لها المملكة العربية السعودية والسياسة التقشفية الاخيرة التي وصلت الى رواتب الوزراء والعاملين في القطاع الحكومي. سنحاول في هذه المقالة ان نوضح اثر هذه التطورات والسياسات على الاقتصاد السعودي ونذكر حدود الدعم والمقاومة عن طريق التحليل الفني وليس الاخبار. سنرى كيف ان الرسوم البيانية قادرة على تقديم صورة دقيقة دون الاعتماد على الاخبار.  

بشكل عام مازالت الاسواق الخليجية تتحرك تحت مضلة التصحيح ... عمليات جني الارباح للمتداولين طويلي  المدى مازالت مستمرة والتي بدورها جعلت الاسواق تدخل في هذه الحركة المتذبذبة ( يرجى مراجعة المقالة السابقة للحصول على معلومات اكثر بهذا الخصوص). لم تتغير الحالة بشكل كبير مقارنة بالشهر الماضي لكن هناك بعض الاسواق ساءت حالتها عن قبل مثل الاسواق السعودية والقطرية. الجداول التالية تمثل حالة الاسواق لشهر يوليو واغسطس وسبتمبر

اللون الاحمر يمثل نزول والاخضر ارتفاع والبرتقالي تصحيح، كما هو واضح بان شهر يوليو مغطى باللون الاخضر مما يدل على انتعاش الاسواق وكثرة عمليات الشراء، اما شهر اغسطس وسبتمبر فهو شهر تصحيح بحيث تري بان اللون الاحمر والبرتقالي اكثر من اللون الاخضر ....

نعتقد بان عمليات التصحيح ستستمر حتى نهاية سنة 2016 لأغلب الاسواق الخليجية، وذلك بسبب تجار المدي الطويل ( الشهري ) مازال باللون الاحمر ويحتاج الى فترة لا تقل عن 3 اشهر للتعافي والتحول الى اللون الاخضر.

اما بالنسبة للمملكة العربية السعودية، كان المسيطر الاساسي على الاسواق هو المستثمر طويل الامد (الشهري) الذي بدأ بالشراء منذ يناير 2016 معتقدا بان الاسواق وصلت الى القاع وانها فرصة جيدة للشراء بأسعار منخفضة، واقصد بالمستثمر الشهري هو الذي يبحث عن ارباح على مستوى الاشهر بحيث يبيع ويشتري على فترات طويلة تمتد الى ثلاث اشهر واكثر. لكن هذا الارتفاع كان مدعوم فقط من قبل فئة واحدة كما وضحنا سلفا وهي طويلي الامد ولا يوجد اي نوع من الدعم او الانسجام مع الفئات الاخرى مثل المستثمرين قصيري او متوسط المدى مثل الاسبوعي واليومي الذين مازالوا يعتقدون بان مازالت الظروف سيئة وقد تستمر الاسواق بالنزول ...

الجديد لشهر اكتوبر بان الجميع بدأ يفكر بنفس الاتجاه ولا يوجد اي نوع من القوى الشرائية التي تدعم الاسواق للارتفاع وخاصة بان عمليات الشراء للمستثمر الشهري قد تقل بشكل كبير ولا يوجد اي دافع للشراء بحسب البيانات والمعطيات التاريخية. السوق السعودي حاليا في مرحلة حرجة يقف على مستوى دعم قوي جدا وهو 5354، جميع المستثمرين متفقين على نزول الاسواق، وستنتقل السيطرة من المستثمر الشهري الى المضارب اليومي من بداية شهر اكتوبر حتى تاريخ 10 اكتوبر وسيبدأ بالضغط على الاسواق بالنزول.

 اذا لم يكسر حاجز الدعم الحالي خلال اول اسبوعين من شهر اكتوبر، هناك فرصة للشراء من تاريخ نصف شهر اكتوبر حتى نهاية الشهر. تعتبر فرصة الشراء محدودة جدا تفيد المضاربين قصيري المدي فقط، لكن هذه الفترة مشروطة بعدم كسر الحاجز الحالي وهو 5354. سترتفع الاسواق بعد ذلك بشكل مؤقت حتى خط المقاومة 5832 .

لكن بعد شهر اكتوبر سيبدأ بالسيطرة على الاسواق المستثمر الاسبوعي، بالرغم من ان هذه الفئة ستضغط باتجاه النزول لكن حدة الضغط لن تكون مثل اول اسبوعين من شهر اكتوبر ... عمليات الضغط باتجاه النزول ستكون قوية اول اسبوعين من شهر اكتوبر، ثم تقف وتبدأ مرة اخرى في شهر نوفمبر وديسمبر لكن بشكل اقل حده من الماضي ... اذا استطاع المستثمرين من فئة اليومي او الاسبوعي بكسر حاجز 5345، هناك احتمالية كبيره بان الاسواق ستقف عند الحد 4358 وهو حد منخفض جدا يعود بنا الى 2008 الانتكاسة الاقتصادية السابقة. الرسمة البيانية توضح حركة الاسواق المتوقعة وحدود الدعم والمقاومة

نهاية القول بان الاسواق السعودية تحت ضغط كبير في اول اسبوعين من شهر اكتوبر بسبب اتفاق جميع المستثمرين على النزول، وحاليا الاسواق واقفة عند مستوى حرج جدا، اذا كسر الحاجز الحالي ستتجه الاسواق الى 4000 نقطة وهي حالة تشابه الانتكاسة الاقتصادية العالمية في عام 2008 ... لكن ان لم تكسر هذا الحاجز خلال اول اسبوعين، ستكون هناك فرصة شراء محدودة من منتصف الشهر حتى اخر الشهر للوصول الى الحد 5832. بعد ذلك سترجع الضغوط بشكل تدريجي باتجاه النزول.

Saudi Arabia Stock Market - Sept 2016

As always, we will start with an overview about latest updates on the Middle East financial markets and then we will take a deep look into the Saudi Arabia financial market. The reason for selecting Saudi Arabia Market this month is because of the recent news about financial pressures on the Saudi government. The government decided to implement the contractionary policy and cutting the government expenses that started with the salaries of Saudi Ministers and state workers. We will analyze the stock market to see how it will react to these events and to determine the next support and resistance levels that the market will respect.

In general, Middle East Financial Markets are consolidating over the past month. There is no much changes occurred since last month for most of the markets. However, there are some markets like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are doing worse than last month. The following tables show the progress of the Higher Timeframe over the past three months. 

  

As for Saudi Arabia, It is currently sitting on major support at 5345. All Higher timeframe are bearish bushing the market to break that support. Since January 2016, the monthly timeframe was pushing the market to go up against the weekly which had a strong bearishness sentiment over the past months. Now, the monthly has no more strength to push the market up and handing over the control to weekly and daily. 

In the upcoming two weeks (from 29^th of Sept till 9^th of Oct), the daily timeframe has strong bearishness sentiment that will push the market to break the support. If it doesn’t break the support within the first two weeks, there is a small window till end of Oct 2016 for the market to go higher to the next resistance which is 5832. Subsequent to that, the weekly will start gradually pushing down till end of the year. Despite the shortness of the daily bearishness sentiment (two weeks only), it is stronger than the weekly. The weekly bearishness is not that strong; however it will last till end of this year. 

If the daily or weekly succeed in breaking the current major support at 5368, there is high probability that the market will be heading to 4358. The following graph shows the daily timeframe and next supports and resistances.

Figure 2: eSignal Daily Chart of Saudi Arabia Financial Market

In conclusion, Saudi Arabia Financial Market has a bearishness sentiment that being pushed down by daily and weekly timeframe. It is currently facing a major support level. If it holds that support for the first two weeks of Oct, there will be a buy opportunity till end of the Oct.  

فرصة شراء مؤشر الاسهم الامريكية اي ميني اس ان بي بارباح 300%

Reward/Risk نسبة الربح	Pips عدد النقاط	Clsing الاغلاق	Target الهدف	Exit الخروج	Entry الدخول	Symbol الاداة المالية	Time الساعة	Date التاريخ
306%	3.00	2186.25	2186.25	2182.27	2183.25	Emini S&P	2:00 AM	9/7/2016

فرصة شراء للأداة المالية دولار الامريكي/الجنية الاسترليني (GBP/USD) بمعدل ربح 225%

فرصة شراء  للأداة المالية دولار الامريكي/الجنية الاسترليني (GBP/USD) بمعدل ربح 225%

المعلومات التالية هي تفاصيل العملية:

نسبة الربح	عدد النقاط	الاغلاق	الهدف	الخروج	الدخول	الاداة المالية	الساعة	التاريخ
225%	-0.0027	1.3326	1.3326	1.3287	1.3299	GBP/USD	7 am	5/9/2016

تم اغلاق الفرصة عند الخط الاخضر بسبب وجود اعلان خلال ساعة يتعلق في الجنيه الاسترليني، للابتعاد عن المخاطرة واحتمالية التأثير السلبي على فرصتنا، تم الخروج بارباح بمعدل 225%. الاخبار عادة تعبث بالنمط السعري وتدمر البيئة المناسبة للفرصة التجارية.

Updates on Middle East Stock Markets

In our last month article, we ended our analysis of Middle East Stock Markets with the following questions: “Will the bullishness sentiment sustain and penetrate the monthly timeframe to allow Middle East markets to enjoy a bullish market? Or is this enhancement temporary and just a major pullback trying to continue its previous direction to go bearish again?”.

The answer is that the Middle East Markets were going through a major pullback that took six months to be completed. It was a temporary bullish that helped the market to recover for couple of months. However, there is low probability it will continue bearish. The major pullback was paving for the market to recover in the long run. It is the transition from bearish to bullish. There is a high probably that it will get into new stage of consolidation for the upcoming weeks to start changing the monthly sentiment to bullish. To support our analysis, we will use three different approaches: iChimoku Heatmap, Color Code Aggregation and Charts.

We will start with the iChimoku Heatmap graph that is generated from our website. It shows the higher timeframes sentiment of Middle East stock markets for the past months. We will concentrate on the daily and weekly timeframes and exclude the monthly since it is a short period.  

According to the above, the major pullback started in January and ended in August. Both months have almost the same color codes (Red and Amber) that covering most of the table. The middle tables show the bullishness. In Feb, the green cells covered all daily timeframes and change the status of the weekly paving the way for the next month. In April, the green cells penetrate the weekly and trying to reach the monthly timeframes. In July, Daily and Weekly timeframes are completely green with few exceptions.

The second approach is the color code aggregation graph shown below. It shows number of Green cells vs Red cells over the past months. You can clearly see that the green cells were higher in March, April and July. Red cells took control in Jan and August. 

Our last approach is the charts. The following are screen shot of Weekly timeframe for some of the Middle East Markets to show the major pullback occurred.

Figure 7: eSignal Weekly Chart of Dubai Financial Market

Figure 7: eSignal Weekly Chart of Kuwait Financial Market

Figure 7: eSignal Weekly Chart of Oman Financial Market

In conclusion, the Middle East Markets had a major pullback that ended in August 2016. There is a low probability that these markets will go bearish again with the same steepness. The upcoming months will be a consolidation phase. The consolidation might continue till begging of next year.

Middle East Markets – Quarterly Comparison

In this article, we would to show the progress in the Middle East stock markets. We will use the iChimoku Heatmap to compare the first month of each quarter to present the sentiment for the higher timeframe (daily, weekly and monthly) as shown below. 

We can identify several observations from the above graphs. First observation is the gradual increase in the green cells (bullish sentiment) across the tables. At the begging of the 2016, the green cell was only covering the daily timeframe and only portion of the Middle East markets like Kuwait, Dubai, Qatar and Oman. In the 2^nd quarter, the green cells penetrate the weekly timeframe and start to create some balance between the two sentiments. And not only the bullishness reached the weekly, but also affected some of the monthly timeframe to change from bearishness to neutral like Kuwait. The 3^rd quarter is almost fully covered with green across all markets except the monthly timeframe.

The second observation is that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are considered the worst cases and the market status is deteriorated comparing with last month. On the other hand, Bahrain which was the worst market in terms of performance, now become one of the best.

The question remains: Will the bullishness sentiment sustain and penetrate the monthly timeframe and Middle East will enjoy a bullish market? Or is this enhancement temporary and just a major pullback for the Middle East markets and trying to continue its previous direction to go bearish again?

To sum up, Middle East markets have progress a lot since 2016. The next step is to align the monthly timeframe direction with the daily and weekly. We believe that there is a window for the Middle East markets to continue the progress and enjoy bullishness till Oct 2016, given that the oil prices sustain it levels or higher. In Oct, the bearish sentiment will increase and we will require another detailed analysis to confirm whether the current progress is a major pullback or consolidation toward bullish trend.

Our Expectations were true about Qatar Market ...

Over the last couple of months, we covered Qatar financial markets several times and forecasted the market reaction to the oil price changes. The following graph was posted in March 2016:

Figure 1: eSignal Weekly Chart of Qatar Market for March 2016

Our forecast was true and Qatar market followed the path we have drawn last time. We have predicted a bullishness in April and June and bearishness in May along with the levels. There was a lag of one week between our forecast and actual performance. The changes in these month occurred one week before comparing to our estimation. To give you more insight about the differences, we have attached the following graph that shows the current status of the market (Bars) and the forecasted movement (blue line).

Figure 2: eSignal Weekly Chart of Qatar Market for March 2016

The market was consolidating between 10400 and 9480 levels. There were two windows of opportunity to go bullish. The first window was supposed to start in April, however it decided to go bullish earlier and started in the 4^th week of March. It got back to the resistance level but could not break it. The second window was June 2016. The timing was matching but the bullishness was not strong enough to bring back the market to the same resistance in one month, so it will continue going bullish to hit the resistance. The bearish sentiment increased as expected in May pushing down the prices to go down against the monthly timeframe.

As for the upcoming weeks, there is high probability that the market will continue its current sentiment and go bullish to reach the major resistance at 10440. The monthly timeframe is supporting the weekly to break that resistance. If it breaks it, it will go to the next major resistance at 11212. However the price should get to the new level before October 2016 because the conflict between weekly and monthly will start in October and it might repeat the consolidation pattern. The following graph shows the next resistance level:

Figure 3: eSignal Weekly Chart of Qatar Market for June 2016

Middle East Stock Markets – Qatar

Comparing to the last month, Middle East Stock Markets are bearish. The level of bearishness varies across the countries but Bahrain and Saudi have the most bearishness sentiment. Qatar and Oman are the most bullish markets. The following graphical views show the strategies of all timeframes for Gulf Region Markets for March and Feb 2016. They help us to identify the sentiment within one market and relatively to others.

Country	60	120	240	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
Kuwait
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Saudi
Bahrain
Qatar
Oman

Figure 1: IchimokuTrade RT Scanner: Middle East Markets Heat Map for March 2016

Country	60	120	240	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
Kuwait
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Saudi
Bahrain
Qatar
Oman

Figure 2: IchimokuTrade RT Scanner: Middle East Markets Heat Map for Feb 2016

Last month, the bullishness sentiment (Green Cells) covered almost all lower timeframes, swing and Daily. It affected also the weekly and monthly timeframe to be neutral and to start shifting from bearish to bullish. However, the green cells were reduced drastically in March 2016. Almost all timeframes covered with either red or amber, which means that Middle East markets started to reverse and go down. The best markets for bullish opportunities are Qatar according to figure no. 1.

Since Qatar is the most bullishness market, let’s go and have close look at it using our ichimoku analysis. The following graph shows the monthly timeframe.

Figure 3: eSignal Monthly Chart of Qatar Financial Market

Over the past four months, the market was consolidating between 10440 and 9480.  It went down all the way to 8331 in January 2016 but did not close at that level. It came back to close above 9480, which is a signal of strong support. Now it is facing a resistance, and there is high probability to break it since it is not multiple timeframe resistance and will go to test the next resistance at 11333. The probability of reaching that level will increase in May and June.

As for the weekly, there are two small windows to support the monthly timeframe to go to the next resistance. The first window started in middle of March and will end by last week of April. The second window is June 2016.  The bearish sentiment will increase in May pushing down the weekly timeframe to go down against the monthly. Weekly timeframe is now the controlling timeframe, whatever the weekly decides to do, will affect the destiny of the market. The following are the weekly timeframe graph

Figure 4: eSignal Weekly Chart of Qatar Market

In conclusion, weekly timeframe is the controlling timeframe. Whatever happens to the weekly, it will decide the market destiny. The market is currently consolidating between 10440 and 9480. There is a conflict between monthly and weekly especially in May. Therefore, there is a high probability that it will continue consolidating till end of May 2016. In June, weekly and monthly will be aligned supporting the market to go up to the next weekly resistance at 11205.